The Philippines is expected to maintain a robust rice supply of 3.83 million metric tons by end-2024, enough to cover consumption for 100 days. The optimistic outlook comes despite anticipated production losses linked to La Niña and other weather phenomena.

“This projection incorporates updated rice stock data, actual import arrivals, and historical trends, ensuring the country’s rice needs are met despite the production drop,” said DA Undersecretary Christopher Morales, who is in-charge of the Rice Industry Programs.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, palay production is projected to decline by 11.9 percent in the third quarter to 3.35 million metric tons due largely to crop damage caused by recent typhoons. The decrease in production would have been higher were it not for higher production yield due to better seeds, farm equipment and other support provided through the Rice Fund under the Rice Tariffication Law and National Rice Program.

Morales said that with a forecast loss of 358,000 metric tons—based on historical damages and actual risks this quarter, total annual palay production is expected to reach 19.41 million metric tons, translating to approximately 12.69 million tons of milled rice.

Despite the drop, the national rice supply will still be robust, with 3.57 million tons of imported rice are already in the country as of October 14, 2024—a 24 percent increase from the previous year, said Morales. The recent cut in tariff rates further incentivized imports, allowing for greater access to global rice markets and mitigating potential shortages, he added..

Experts believe that the combination of imports and proactive management of domestic production will help ensure that the Philippines remains resilient in the face of climatic challenges. The government continues to monitor the situation closely, aiming to stabilize prices and maintain food security for the population. ###